Draft: investigation ongoing.

Daniel Welsh · the calculator · Instinct

Worth $10B.
I still can’t get in.

Instinct is an AI agent you text. It’s invite-only, and when I texted it, it put me on the waitlist. So I read the code its website sends to everyone and priced every service it shows. The part you can see costs almost nothing. The AI you can’t see is the bill.

* Read from the 98 JavaScript files instinct.com and app.instinct.com send every visitor, on 18 Oct 2026. No login, nothing installed. The AI runs on Instinct’s servers and isn’t in that code, so every AI figure here is our estimate. Instinct hasn’t published its costs, prices or user numbers. Prices checked 19 Oct 2026.

$10B

valuation, Sep 2026

14

people on the team

98

code files its website sends

0

AI models named in that code

Part I. The stack

Everything the website code shows

Each row is something you can find in the code a browser downloads from instinct.com, or in their public DNS and legal pages. The last row is the one that matters most, and it isn't there.

  • How you talk to it

    What they useiMessage + WhatsApp

    What shows itHomepage: "You can text or call it." Sign-up: "You can reach Instinct on iMessage or WhatsApp."

  • Which one you get

    What they useTheir own code

    What shows itAndroid gets WhatsApp only. An iPhone with a +1 number (US or Canada) gets iMessage first, when a switch on their server is on. The code is below.

  • Their iMessage number

    What they useLinq (likely)

    What shows itLinq posted that it's partnering with the Instinct team (26 Aug). What Linq does for them isn't stated.

  • Web app

    What they useReact + Tailwind + Radix

    What shows itReact's version string (18.3.1), Tailwind class names, Radix references

  • Pages and build

    What they useTanStack Router + Vite

    What shows itRoute objects with sign-in guards, and Vite's preload helper

  • Chat box

    What they useLexical

    What shows itMeta's open source text editor. Its error links appear in the chat page

  • Talking to the server

    What they useGraphQL + Relay

    What shows itA /graphql endpoint and Relay's compiled queries

  • API

    What they useTheir own, behind Cloudflare

    What shows itapi.instinct.com answers with server: cloudflare. Its plain "404 page not found" is word for word what Go prints, so it's likely written in Go

  • Sign-up

    What they usePhone number + text code

    What shows itA text-code step in the sign-up flow, and no passwords

  • Bot check

    What they useCloudflare Turnstile

    What shows itTurnstile loads on the text sign-up

  • Marketing site

    What they useVercel

    What shows itinstinct.com answers with server: Vercel, plus Vercel Analytics

  • Ad measurement

    What they useA Cloudflare Worker

    What shows itA hidden frame titled "Advertising measurement" loads instinct-tap.instinct.workers.dev

  • Payments

    What they useStripe Link

    What shows itA Stripe Link connection you can add and remove

  • Hotels

    What they useDuffel

    What shows itapi.duffel.com and Duffel's checkout components

  • Passwords

    What they useIts own vault + 1Password

    What shows it"You'll approve each login in 1Password."

  • Email

    What they useAmazon SES + Google Workspace

    What shows itPublic DNS: each Instinct's own @mail.instinct.com address receives on Amazon SES; staff mail is Google

  • Connections

    What they useGoogle, Outlook, Notion, Linear, GitHub, Spotify, Whoop, Shop, Granola

    What shows itConnect and disconnect actions for each. Slack is canvases only, not messages

  • Mac app

    What they useMembers only

    What shows itThe download page sits behind the sign-in check

  • The AI

    What they useNot in the code

    What shows itTheir privacy policy says they use third-party AI model providers and also train their own models. The website just sends your messages to their server.

How it picks iMessage or WhatsApp

app.instinct.com · OnboardingPage (pretty-printed; the one-letter names are theirs)
const Ln = "onboarding.imessage_first_us_ios"

return a.includes("Android")
  ? "whatsapp_only"
  : e && ((i == null ? void 0 : i.startsWith("+1")) ?? !1)
    && a.includes("iPhone")
  ? "imessage_first"
  : "standard"
a is your browser's description of your phone, i is your phone number, and e is that switch from their server. Android: WhatsApp only. An iPhone with a +1 number, switch on: iMessage first. Everyone else: the standard choice.

Part II. The bill

The part you can see costs almost nothing

The monthly bill at 100K members (the only reported figure), 500K and 1M. It assumes each member gives it a few jobs a day. Change that below.

Members

  • The AISonnet-class models, not in the code

    $2.27M
    estimate

  • Phone callsit rings places for you, provider not visible

    $68K
    estimate

  • WhatsApp$0.0034 a reply

    $41K
    list

  • Servers and databasetheir own API, host not visible

    $30K
    estimate

  • Agent computerscloud browsers, provider not visible

    $25K
    estimate

  • LinqiMessage lines, flat per line (likely)

    $15K
    estimate

  • Text codessign-up and sign-in, provider not visible

    $5.8K
    stand-in

  • Amazon SESeach Instinct's own email

    $2.1K
    list

  • CloudflareAPI edge, bot check, ad worker

    $2K
    estimate

  • Vercelthe marketing site

    $500
    estimate

  • Google Workspacestaff email, 14 people

    $196
    list

  • 1Passwordthe member pays for their own

    Free
    member pays

  • React, Tailwind, Radix, Lexical, Relay, TanStack, Vitethe web app

    Free
    free
  • Total a month$2.45M

At 100K members. The AI alone is 92% of it.

About $24.54 per member a month, and 92% of it is the AI.

Everything you can find in the code (texting, sign-up, email, hosting) is a rounding error next to the model. When I texted it, the waitlist reply said why it’s invite-only: “while we ramp up compute and reliability.”

Part III. Run it yourself

Move the inputs, watch the AI line

The same model as the bill above. Change how many members it has, how many jobs each gives it a day, and which class of model does the work.

The class of model doing the work

$2.45M

stack bill a month · $24.54 a member

92%

of it is the AI

46 years

of this bill, from the ~$1.35B raised

  • The AISonnet-class models, not in the code

    $2.27M

  • Phone callsit rings places for you, provider not visible

    $68K

  • WhatsApp$0.0034 a reply

    $41K

  • Servers and databasetheir own API, host not visible

    $30K

  • Agent computerscloud browsers, provider not visible

    $25K

  • LinqiMessage lines, flat per line (likely)

    $15K

  • Text codessign-up and sign-in, provider not visible

    $5.8K

  • Amazon SESeach Instinct's own email

    $2.1K

  • CloudflareAPI edge, bot check, ad worker

    $2K

  • Vercelthe marketing site

    $500

  • Google Workspacestaff email, 14 people

    $196

Our assumptions, not Instinct’s. A job is one thing you ask it to do, priced at about 150K tokens read and 4K written, with 70% of the reading served from cache; Anthropic says agents typically use about 4× the tokens of a chat. A quick reply costs far less and a long booking far more. Model prices are Anthropic’s as a stand-in: Instinct uses third-party models and its own, and hasn’t said which. Also assumed: 2 replies a job, 40% of members on WhatsApp, one Linq line per 1,000 iMessage members, 20% of jobs using its computer for 5 minutes, and 2 phone calls a member a month. The runway ignores revenue and salaries.

Part IV. The price list

What each piece costs at list

Public list prices, with where each one came from. Where the code doesn't name the vendor, the row says so and uses a common stand-in.

  • Web app

    ToolReact, Tailwind, Radix

    List priceFree, open source

    Source (grade)A

  • Chat box

    ToolLexical

    List priceFree, open source

    Source (grade)A

  • Server talk, pages, build

    ToolRelay, TanStack, Vite

    List priceFree, open source

    Source (grade)A

  • The AI (stand-in)

    ToolClaude Sonnet 5.5

    List price$2 per million tokens read, $10 written, cache reads $0.20. Haiku 5.5 $0.10 / $0.50; Opus 5.5 $4 / $20. OpenAI's and Google's middle tiers are also $2 / $10

    Source (grade)Anthropic, OpenAI, Google price pages (A)

  • Agent computers (stand-in)

    ToolBrowserbase

    List price$0.10 to $0.12 a browser-hour after the plan's included hours

    Source (grade)browserbase.com/pricing (A)

  • iMessage lines

    ToolLinq

    List priceNot public: a flat monthly price per line, nothing per message. A competitor puts it at about $250 a line

    Source (grade)linqapp.com (A); sendblue.com (C)

  • iMessage, to compare

    ToolSendblue

    List price$100 a month per line, $0 a message

    Source (grade)sendblue.com/pricing (A)

  • WhatsApp

    ToolMeta

    List priceReplies within 24 hours: first 1,000 a month per number free, then $0.0034 each. Marketing messages $0.025 (US, from 1 Oct 2026)

    Source (grade)Meta's rate card (A)

  • Text codes (stand-in)

    ToolTwilio Verify

    List price$0.05 a successful code + $0.0083 a text

    Source (grade)twilio.com/verify/pricing (A)

  • Phone calls (stand-in)

    ToolRetell

    List priceAbout $0.085 a minute for the voice, speech and phone line, before the AI

    Source (grade)retellai.com/pricing (A)

  • Each Instinct's email

    ToolAmazon SES

    List price$0.10 per 1,000 sent; $0.10 per 1,000 received + $0.09 per 1,000 incoming 256 KB chunks

    Source (grade)aws.amazon.com/ses/pricing (A)

  • Bot check

    ToolCloudflare Turnstile

    List priceFree, unlimited checks

    Source (grade)cloudflare.com (A)

  • API edge, ad worker

    ToolCloudflare

    List priceWorkers Paid $5 a month for 10M requests, then $0.30 per million; Enterprise custom

    Source (grade)cloudflare.com (A)

  • Marketing site

    ToolVercel

    List pricePro $20 a month a seat + usage

    Source (grade)vercel.com/pricing (A)

  • Staff email

    ToolGoogle Workspace

    List priceBusiness Standard $14 a user a month

    Source (grade)workspace.google.com (A)

  • Passwords

    Tool1Password

    List priceThe member's own 1Password plan

    Source (grade)A

  • Payments

    ToolStripe Link

    List price2.9% + 30¢ a card payment, paid by the shop. Shared payment tokens for agents $0.15 each

    Source (grade)stripe.com/pricing (A)

  • Hotels

    ToolDuffel

    List priceHotels: no fee; the hotel pays a commission and Duffel shares it with you. Flights: $3 an order

    Source (grade)duffel.com/pricing (A)

Part V. The money

Lots of funding, no published revenue

What's on the record, graded. Instinct hasn't published revenue, users or prices, and the founder's own numbers are unaudited.

  • $1B Series C at a $10B valuation, from Sequoia, Benchmark and Coatue (28 Sep 2026)

    Source (grade)Instinct press release, Business Wire (A)

    What it suggestsAbout $1.35B raised in total, with the earlier rounds

  • $250M Series B at $2.5B (26 Aug 2026)

    Source (grade)TechCrunch, via WSJ (B)

    What it suggestsThe valuation went up 4× in about a month

  • A team of 14 people (29 Sep 2026)

    Source (grade)TechCrunch (B)

    What it suggestsAbout $714M of valuation per person

  • "100,000+ users"

    Source (grade)The Information, anonymous source (B, reportedly)

    What it suggestsThe only user figure anywhere, so the bill starts there

  • Free to members. The Terms say some features may carry fees; Shinn has said he doesn't want to charge users

    Source (grade)Instinct's Terms (A); press (B)

    What it suggestsMembers pay nothing today, so subscriptions don't cover the bill

  • Transactions "approaching a billion dollars" a year, over half of it travel

    Source (grade)TechCrunch, quoting Shinn (B, self-reported)

    What it suggestsThat's members' spending, not Instinct's revenue

  • Shinn floated charging merchants a commission (boutique hotels offer up to 30%) and keeping it free for travellers

    Source (grade)Skift (B)

    What it suggestsThe likeliest business model: a cut of what the agent buys

  • Duffel's hotels pay a commission that Duffel shares with the seller

    Source (grade)duffel.com/pricing (A)

    What it suggestsHotel bookings can already earn Instinct a cut. Its share isn't public

  • "while we ramp up compute and reliability" (my waitlist reply); "actively bringing up more compute" (Shinn)

    Source (grade)Instinct's reply to my text, 18 Oct (A); Fortune (B)

    What it suggestsTheir stated reason for the waitlist is capacity

At 100K members, the money raised would cover this bill for about 46 years.

So cash doesn't look like what keeps the waitlist shut. Their own reply names it: compute and reliability. Push the calculator to 1M members on an Opus-class model and the same money lasts about 2.6 years, before salaries.

And to pay this bill from commissions alone, Instinct would need a cut of about 3% of the roughly $1B a year its members spend through it.

Part VI. The clever part

Its own computer, and a vault you approve

Their homepage says it can use a phone and computer the way you do. The code shows how they stop that going wrong.

  1. 01

    It gets its own computer

    The vault has an entry for the agent's computer ("Add agent's computer"), separate from yours.

  2. 02

    You list the websites

    It can only log into sites you add ("Enter a website such as chase.com").

  3. 03

    Every login waits for you

    Through 1Password: "Nothing is shared until you approve it in 1Password."

  4. 04

    And it never trains on it

    Their privacy policy says vault contents are only used to run the service and will not train AI models (A).

app.instinct.com · VaultSitesField + OnePasswordConnectPage (strings exactly as shipped)
"aria-label": "Add agent's computer",
children: "Enter a website such as chase.com"

const w = "Nothing is shared until you approve it in 1Password.",
body: "You’ll approve each login in 1Password.",

Part VII. The limits

What this does not prove

  • ×Which AI models Instinct runs, or what a job really costs it. That all happens on their servers.
  • ×What the members-only Mac app does inside.
  • ×Users, revenue or what members pay. Only anonymous or self-reported figures exist.
  • ×What Linq does for Instinct, and who sends its text codes and places its calls.
  • ×How much members use it. Every usage number on this page is ours.

Keep going

That’s Instinct’s bill.
Now price yours.

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